He had gone out to dinner with friends the night before and realized that none of them — “I mean nobody” — believed the statements coming out of Apple PR about Steve Jobs’ health. “As good as the company is,” he wrote, “I just can’t own a stock when I don’t believe the company is being straight with investors.”. So wrote Fred Wilson, the managing partner of Union Square Ventures, in his widely read blog A VC, on Jan. 7, 2009.
That would seem to hold true in your case. Post iPhone, Android builds were built in the image of the iPhone. If you’ve seen early builds of Android prior to the iPhone announcement, you’ve seen what is basically a Blackberry clone. hence the “cheap” references. Ben, regardless of whether you’re an iOS or Android fan, it should be very clear that Android is a shameless copy of iOS, perhaps with less restrictions. Further, regardless of what you personally paid for your Android device, the fact remains that you can get them for free and there have been many buy one, get one free promotions. The reason you hear the “imitation” comment is obvious to anyone aside from a zealot who’s blinded by emotion to the point actual facts are ignored.
Apple has the design, user experience and consisency across hardware platforms that easily enable users to migrate across their entire line (this consistency helps software developers develop apps that work as well in that environment). Which leads me back to Fred Wilson. In-context software awareness to assist the user in processing through information with user-selected preferences will elevate the user experience beyond the basic interactivity paradigm between man and PC that was established 30 years ago. What is interesting is that both Google and Apple continue to ignore the impressive developments at IBM in intelligent computing and fail to recognize how a cloud-based intelligent assistant could re-process incoming information from disparate sources and package (within one App) a re-processed data set that makes more sense to the end user (based on unique prefences and a pre-set criteria). Most investors are emotional and sporadic in their decision making, they lack consistency and tend to shift, drift and change (as they sometimes should with the changing times). Up to this point neither Android nor iOS has developed the robust intelligent platform needed to interface the user to such a system. What’s missing? Intelligence in the software itself that enables a more unique user experience with adaptation to that user in the context of how they use the software in varying circumstances. If we could, in parallel, document basic investment decision intelligence of differing approaches (such as “when going out to dinner, weigh friends’ perceptions of company XYZ’s PR department on when to sell XYZ stock”) and run the simulation, it would be interesting who floats to the top as the best performing investor over time (please leave human emotion out of it).
Steve’s health is a problem, and Apple have been plagued with problems in recent product launched. They still have a great brand, but I think more and more people are starting to realize that the neighborhood cat is pooping in Steve Job’s sandbox. Apple is tomorrows Palm Pilot. With 40% of revenue coming from the iPhone, and a further 16% from iPad, they are far too homogenous.
Yes, we understand Sj might not be healthy – lots of people drop dead from hidden medical conditions – do we need a weekly cat scan from every one at amazon or google? Or can you always predict a natural or man made disaster that afects a company or stock? No, Fred somehow makes up one rule for Apple and at a HUGE PROFIT – most likely because Aple won’t give him any VC business – though maybe it’s because I’ve never heard of him either. unlike 1988, EVERYONE could make money being in the PC industry and of MS made from WIN OEM, Office, Win servers and mainteance – what does google make from giving away Android? About $5 per phone sold. Wilson but clearly only someone who does not understand history or technology would think mobile 2011 is PC industry 1988 . google still makes $5. Apple makes $600 for every phone sold. If you presume adsense = itunes i terms of add-on revenue, how many phones does Google have to sell to equal one iphone sold – you do the math – now add in tablets and ipods + macs and itunes . Fred fails to see the most basic foundation. No idea who F.
It’s all about WINNING. It’s all about HATE, the life blood of egoists. Fred is a sick A-Hole, just like all the other sick, basement-dwelling A-holes who fill the comment sections of TECH sites all over the internet. All Apple supporters are “Fanboys” to Fred. Fred has emerged as the leading HATER in all things Apple. These people are egoists. Tech is “RELIGION” today, and Fred is the Osama bin Laden of the Android Taliban. Fred Wilson is a raging, PC gaming, MacSux T-shirt wearing Apple HATER. If Fred Wilson sold AAPL, it was bought in the first place so it could be sold with some big public show in order to further damage the stock price.
So Fred, tell us.how many of your clients/friends invested with Bernie Madoff? Surely you have heard of him. Or did you sit back in your corner office with a view and windbag to your buddies about how one day the Madoff house of cards was gonna come down? Enquiring minds want to how how such sterling thinkers as you perceived such a big fraud. And if he seemed to be “misleading investors.”, did you do anything about it, like contact the SEC.
One click of your mouse and you’re free and clear of AAPL. Regarding Steve’s health.does ANYONE really believe that one of the smartest minds in the tech business doesn’t realize his time might come sooner than later and has planned accordingly? Of course secretive Steve isn’t going to show his hand. I know over the past decade Steve has built something very special at Apple and that includes the management team. It might be a bumpy road but Apple’s not going to disappear overnight. If you’re a concerned shareholder, Apple stock isn’t like Detroit real estate. Good luck to all longs on AAPL on 4/20. They have the momentum to continue to grow without him. If Steve should leave Apple for whatever reason, I’m not worried. As in life however, no one is indispensable. He always plays close to the vest – very smart.
As for the rest of what you said, how do you explain the success of the iPod? Why wasn’t it overrun by Android-like PlaysForSure? How do you explain the success of the Intel Mac, which has 90% market share in high-end PC’s, is the biggest-selling notebook, and has made Apple the most profitable PC maker? How are Android handset makers, who represent 3% of mobile profits, going to beat Apple, who represents 52% of mobile profits, and Apple has a larger market cap than all of them combined, as well as a larger installed base of devices? Since Apple uses over 60% of the world’s touch mobile manufacturing, who is going to build the touch devices you think are going to overrun Apple? Since Apple uses 75% of the flash storage, who is going to make the storage for these devices you think are going to overrun Apple? iPhone is “iPod phone” and iPad is “iPod computer” … why won’t they play out over the next 10 years like the other iPods of the last 10 years? When Android has twice the addressable market and sells for half the price of iPhone, does Android only sell a few more phones than Apple? If Apple releases a second phone model at the same price as Android phones, won’t Apple’s sales go up? If Apple expands to more carriers and equals the addressable market of Android, won’t Apple’s sales go up? How do you explain that Clorox just dumped their BlackBerry devices and gave their users a choice of 3 platforms, and it came out Apple 92%; Android 6%; Microsoft 2%? Why wouldn’t that kind of user demand translate to more Apple sales as they expand onto equal footing with other phone makers as far as addressable market and diversity of price points? And how is a $200 pocket smartphone more like a $2000 1990′s desktop PC than a $200 pocket iPod? Makes no sense.
The iOS/Android = OS X/Windows “analysis” is such a ludicrous meme it would be hilarious if morons like Blodget weren’t taking it seriously. History has demonstrated that Steve’s call on his personal health was a sound one so FW’s self-righteous rationale for his Apple-hating was empty. The fact that Fred earlier bragged about his bad judgement in getting rid of AAPL stock, combined with his more recent bad advice to developers to develop for Android first, just exposes him as an ego-driven sore loser Ahab for whom Apple has become the white whale. I’m afraid Fred is just digging himself a massive hole on this one. Phillip, good article.
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